What makes electric vehicle sales reverse?

Date:Feb 28, 2019

At the same time as the mass production of automotive power batteries, the rapid decline in costs will reduce the sales price of electric vehicles, which can compensate for the economic losses and psychological imbalances caused by subsidies.

The news that the subsidies for new energy vehicles have fallen this year has made many people think that expensive electric cars can't afford them. From a policy point of view, after the new energy vehicles were unveiled in China in 2008, the state has always been supportive. The subsidies for car companies and consumers are also very "powerful". Among them, the key targets of support for pure electric vehicles have achieved unprecedented development. . Therefore, the rumor that the subsidies for new energy vehicles will fall back this year does not mean that electric vehicles are about to lose market.

Lithium batteries for electric vehicles account for 30% to 40% of the cost of vehicle manufacturing, and the proportion is still quite large. Therefore, the price of lithium batteries has a great impact on the sales price of electric vehicles, and the price of lithium batteries is declining year by year. Take the ternary lithium battery, the cost per kilowatt in 2017 is about 1750 yuan, professionals expect that by 2020, the cost per kW is 900 yuan, the price will be reduced by nearly half. This also means that although policy subsidies have a decreasing trend, even if the subsidies are reduced, while the large-scale production of automobile power batteries, the rapid decline in costs will lower the sales price of electric vehicles, which can make up for the economy caused by subsidies. Loss and psychological imbalances.

Conversely, the subsidy has subsided, on the one hand, the market competitiveness has been strengthened, and the “small workshop” battery enterprises that have simply increased production capacity and no technical conditions in order to obtain subsidies have been promoted. The newly issued “Lithium-ion battery industry specification announcement management measures” The company also put forward clear production technology requirements for enterprises. On the other hand, it proves that China's new energy automobile industry has initially had the competitive advantage with traditional fuel vehicles and foreign new energy automobile enterprises. Standing on the same platform, it is more helpful for China's electric vehicle enterprises to enhance their comprehensive capabilities.

The endurance of electric vehicles is one of the important conditions, but it is not the only condition. The state encourages the higher energy density of lithium batteries, and does not neglect the requirements for safety and longevity. The battery characteristics of lithium iron phosphate battery make it more powerful in terms of safety and longevity. Enterprises that are willing to work hard on lithium iron phosphate battery technology will have a certain advantage in the future. Therefore, in the "undercurrent" under the subsidy, low-cost, high-tech, lithium batteries and auto companies that see the market situation will instead "go upstream."

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