According to the plan, Japan will increase the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total sales to 50% in 2020 and 70% in 2030; the number of electric vehicles in the United States will reach 1 million in 2020, and the sales of new energy vehicles in China by 2025. The proportion of total sales will also reach 20% or even higher.
First, favorable factors
(1) Policy support
In 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry. The Action Plan proposes to promote the development of China's power battery in three stages: in 2018, improve the cost performance of existing products and ensure the supply of high-quality batteries; in 2020, a new generation of lithium-ion power batteries based on existing technology will be used for large-scale applications; In 2025, the new system battery using the new chemical principle strives to achieve technological change and development testing.
The Action Plan proposes that by 2020, the total capacity of the power battery industry will exceed 100 billion watt-hours, and it will form an internationally competitive leading enterprise with a production and sales scale of over 40 billion watt-hours. The new lithium-ion battery has a specific energy of more than 300 watt-hours/kg; the system has a specific energy of 260 watt-hours/kg, the cost is reduced to less than 1 yuan/watt hour, and the use environment is -30 °C to 55 °C, which can have 3C. Charging ability. By 2025, the new system's power battery technology has made breakthroughs, with a monomer specific energy of 500 watt-hours/kg.
(2) Rapid growth of new energy vehicles
According to the plan, Japan will increase the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total sales to 50% in 2020 and 70% in 2030; the number of electric vehicles in the United States will reach 1 million in 2020, and the sales of new energy vehicles in China by 2025. The proportion of total sales will also reach 20% or even higher. There are indications that the direction of developing new energy vehicles is clear and the pace of popularization is accelerating.
It can be seen that in recent years, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, power batteries have become an area of extremely high investment. The number of domestic power battery companies has also increased rapidly from around 50 at the end of 2014 to 150 in 2016. In the past two years, these battery companies have invested in or built factories, or cooperated with OEMs, or spread various technical routes, etc., and they have seized the opportunity before the new energy vehicle market ushered in an outbreak. Something. In fact, under the impetus of these enterprises, the field of power batteries has indeed achieved certain results in the past two years.
(3) Increasing international competitiveness
China's power battery technology has been greatly improved, its cost has dropped significantly, and its international competitiveness has been continuously enhanced. By the end of 2017, the energy density of China's ternary battery cells reached 230Wh/kg, the system energy density reached 150Wh/kg or more, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; the system price dropped to about 1400 yuan/kWh, down more than 15% year-on-year. The energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery cell exceeds 150Wh/kg, the system energy density reaches 130Wh/kg or more, which is about 10% higher than the same period of last year; the system price is reduced to about 1,300 yuan/kWh, which is more than 25% lower than the same period of last year. The power battery enterprises represented by Ningde Times and BYD have successfully entered the supporting system of international vehicle manufacturers. Companies represented by Betray, Shanshan, Tianci, etc. have also become the world's leading power battery materials companies. At present, the energy density of the new lithium-ion battery developed in Ningde era has reached 304Wh/kg, and the cycle life has reached 1000 times. It is expected that mass production will be realized from 2019 to 2020.
Second, the unfavorable factors
(1) Insufficient high-end capacity of power battery
The overall capacity of domestic power battery companies may have exceeded the demand for new energy vehicles, but the real good battery is still in short supply. In addition to the gaps in objective factors such as material and equipment levels, production processes, and policy adjustments, there are several main reasons for the lack of domestic high-end power battery capacity.
1, cognitive out of sync
Many power battery companies are still not aware of the development of the new energy vehicle industry. In terms of vehicle development, the complete cycle is about 2-4 years. Therefore, the production capacity of the entire vehicle is at least two years ahead of schedule. However, some power battery companies only pay attention to policies and capacity expansion, and do not realize the importance of coordinated development of vehicle companies, so that they can not keep up with the pace of vehicle manufacturers, and products can not enter the vision of vehicle companies.
2. Transformation of cooperation mode
The cooperation between power batteries and car companies has a long history, but at different stages of the development of new energy vehicle industry, the depth of cooperation and driving factors are not the same.
At present, car companies and battery companies are transforming from a pure supply-demand relationship to a deep-binding cooperation based on market and business model innovation. This is often a strong alliance between top-ranking companies, and high-end power battery capacity is tied, resulting in tight market supply. On the other hand, the supporting application of high-end production capacity needs to pass a certain verification cycle, so there will also be short-term supply shortages.
3. Industrial development environment is chaotic
It is too easy for domestic companies to enter the new energy vehicle industry, and too few are eliminated. For example, the power battery market is mixed, and vicious competition among enterprises is frequent. In this case, it is not conducive to the formation of a benign development mechanism of the industry. Enterprises cannot make high-end products, but also talk about success.
(2) The risk of structural overcapacity is highlighted
Before 2015, China's power battery market was basically in short supply. The high-growth new energy vehicle production and sales scale can basically eliminate the gradual expansion of power battery capacity. With the investment in the power battery industry increased, the power battery capacity reached 40 billion Wh at the end of 2015. At the end of 2016, the power battery capacity reached 120 billion Wh. At the end of 2017, the power battery capacity reached 200 billion Wh, which is five times the capacity at the end of 2015. The year-on-year increase in production scale has led to a gradual increase in the risk of overcapacity. According to the calculation of the power battery capacity of 36.4 billion Wh in 2017, the comprehensive utilization rate of China's power battery capacity is only 23%. According to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd. Policy Research Center, the demand for power batteries in China will be about 110 billion Wh in 2020, and the current capacity of power batteries can meet the demand in 2020. Although the current production capacity has increased significantly, most of the enterprises have backward manufacturing processes, insufficient R&D and innovation capabilities, and poor product quality and consistency. The high-end production capacity that can truly enter the international vehicle supporting system is still insufficient.
(3) The recycling system has not yet been formed
The utilization and recycling of power battery ladders is an important part of the new energy automobile industry chain. As the popularity of new energy vehicles in China continues to accelerate, the scrapped amount of used power batteries will increase rapidly. According to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd. Policy Research Center, by 2020, the annual waste of China's power battery will exceed 80,000 t / year, and the total scrap of 2009-2020 will exceed 260,000 tons. Before 2014, a considerable part of the installed power battery has been retired or will be retired. If it is not handled properly, it will cause greater harm to the environment and human health. At the same time, the decommissioned power battery has potential value in cascade utilization and material recovery. If it cannot be reused effectively, it will cause waste of resources. However, China's power battery recycling system has not yet been formed, recycling standards need to be improved, recycling technology needs to be improved, lack of relevant incentive policies and measures, market-based recycling mechanisms have not yet been established, recycling is difficult, low utilization rate, industry development is not standardized, etc. The problem is outstanding.