Looking around the entire automotive market, electric vehicles are more active and attractive than traditional fuel vehicles. At the same time, concerns about the future of electric vehicles continue to ferment. In order to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently organized a kick-off meeting for the preparation of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)".
Electric vehicles are still a high-speed expansion industry, but as the first batch of life cycle is coming to an end, the industry has entered a bottleneck period. At least three major anxieties plague the industry.
"Don't dare to drive the warm wind in the winter, the last five rings should be trembled because of the constant observation of electricity, not to mention the distant door." The Beijing car owner said the most difficult psychological barrier - mileage.
The factors affecting the cruising range mainly include battery, electric control, motor, body weight and so on. Among them, the power battery as the power core of electric vehicles bears the main dependence of mileage. In simple terms, the larger the battery capacity, the more natural the power is.
From the perspective of vehicle space, the electric vehicles currently on the market have basically installed batteries as much as possible within the operational range of their respective vehicles to ensure the balance between battery life and volume. However, in addition to volume, weight is also an important reason for battery capacity constraints.
This is why major power battery manufacturers are stepping up to study batteries with higher energy density ratios. Because the energy density is increased, it means that the battery capacity is increased under the condition of constant volume and weight. However, the higher the energy density, the higher the cost of the battery.
“Pure pursuit of energy density is a very high risk,” said Peking University professor Lu, who publicly pointed out, “because this will inevitably sacrifice the safety and service life of the power battery.” Under the tradeoff, in search of mileage, body, and price The balance between safety and safety will naturally be compromised by the producers. In short, the technology is not in place.
In addition to the performance and quality of the battery itself, electronic control is equally important. How to ensure that the battery works at its best, improving battery efficiency, reliability and extending life is its main function. The most critical of these is the temperature. If the temperature is too high or too low, the power battery will not be fully discharged, which will directly affect the cruising range.
A recent study by the US authorities found that low temperatures can attenuate electric vehicle batteries, especially when using car warm air, the cruising range will be temporarily reduced by 40%. This means that a 300-kilometer pure electric vehicle may have a cruising range of less than 180 km in low temperature conditions in winter.
Some people have tested the ES8, the first model of Weilai Automobile. Although it claims that the NEDC has a cruising range of 355 kilometers under the comprehensive working conditions, the mileage of the vehicle in the winter is about 150 kilometers, and in the manufacturer's suggestion, there are “recommendations. Reduce the on/off air conditioning in the car."
Well-known manufacturers often publish “experimental data” that is not close to actual driving during publicity, or silence the key information. The reflection behind it is not only the asymmetry of information between the two sides of the market, but also the defects and storage of technology. Can bottleneck.
The industry that can make money has never lacked participants and funds, and electric cars are the same. At present, there are about 250 domestic electric vehicle registration companies. The huge quantity and uneven quality have created the current overcapacity and waste.
In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.27 million and 1.256 million, respectively, an increase of 59.9% and 61.7% over the same period of the previous year. According to the plan, the target of 2 million vehicles will be completed by 2020.
According to statistics, as of June 2018, the annual production capacity of new energy production bases built by 16 car companies exceeded 3 million. Moreover, the production capacity will continue to be released. The annual production capacity of 29 new car production bases under construction will exceed 8 million, and will be put into operation in 2018-2020.
By summarizing the above data, it is easy to know that by 2020, the capacity of these 41 automakers in China will reach 11 million vehicles/year, and in 2018, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will still be 1 million.
On December 18, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission officially promulgated the "Regulations on Investment Management of the Automobile Industry", which will include the management authority for the overall investment project of the automobile, including the construction of a pure electric enterprise project, from the central government to the local government. The management method was changed from the approval system to the filing system. Seemingly lowering the threshold, in fact, it will increase supervision and put forward higher requirements for the project. The qualification acquisition will face a variety of tests, while at the same time alleviating the overcapacity of the electric vehicle market and curbing the investment bubble.
Battery recovery anxiety
The scale of electric vehicles started in 2014, after a life cycle of 5-8 years, began to enter a large-scale retirement period from 2018 to 2019.
According to the prediction of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, from 2018 to 2020, the total number of scrapped power batteries in the country will reach 120,000-200,000 tons, or 350,000 tons by 2025.
Relevant institutions predict that the market scale of power battery recycling will reach 6.5 billion yuan in 2020, of which the market for cascade utilization is about 4.1 billion, and the market for recycling is 2.4 billion yuan. By 2023, the total market size will reach 15 billion yuan, of which the market size of cascade utilization is about 5.7 billion yuan, and the scale of recycling market is about 9.3 billion yuan.
In order to promote the recovery of power battery on the right track, the Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven ministries and commissions clearly pointed out that as the main body of responsibility, automobile production enterprises should establish a power battery recycling channel to be responsible for recycling new energy vehicles. Used and used batteries after use and scrapped.
From the point of view of utilization, the first is the use of decommissioned batteries to make use of waste heat in low-speed electric vehicles, distributed photovoltaics, energy storage, etc. Second, the recycling of used batteries, but the variety of power batteries, complex structure, dismantling It is difficult, environmental protection and safety risks are high.
This seemingly profitable blue ocean may also overwhelm the survivors. The insiders pointed out that the technical threshold of power battery recycling is high, the capital pressure is huge, the recycling channels are not smooth, and there is no such problem as the effective market profit model, which has caused many enterprises to “have more than enough energy”.
In addition to these three major anxieties, the development of the electric vehicle industry is also constrained by other factors, such as infrastructure shortcomings.
The number of electric vehicles continues to rise, leading to an increasing demand for charging infrastructure. However, the shortcomings embodied in the infrastructure are by no means as simple as the increase.
The low utilization rate of charging piles has become an insurmountable problem in the industry. According to research, the utilization rate of public charging infrastructure in China is only 12%. Beijing's charging pile facilities are much higher than the national average, but due to the serious occupation of fuel vehicles, some of the piles have been occupied by fuel vehicles since installation, and the utilization rate is equally worrying.
Operating costs have become a problem that investors have to overcome. As the mileage of electric vehicles increases, the demand for charging is also changing. The frequency of dependence on charging piles is decreasing, and the charging pile enterprises are adjusted to adjust the layout.
The complexity of the approval process also limits the development of the charging pile industry. It is reported that the approval of the Mongolian charging station is generally 5-6 months, and the length is even more than 1 year. The manpower and energy are not mentioned for the time being. The most uncomfortable point in front of the enterprise.
In addition, the martyrdom from property companies has also exacerbated the contradiction of infrastructure. The most typical is to charge the "entry fee or management fee" for the charging pile company, and propose a demanding sharing plan, otherwise it will force the enterprise to submit by powering off and destroying equipment.
In addition to charging piles, the inconsistent charging standard system also hampers the healthy development of the industry. Different models, unlike battery technology, require charging facilities to be adapted in time, resulting in wasted resources and delayed use.
In addition to fast charging, another route, the power-changing mode, also faces shortcomings in infrastructure. Weilai, Beiqi New Energy and other enterprises are exploring the development path of the power exchange mode, but the primary problem is the vehicle base and land cost.