With the diversification of the automotive industry, the increasingly serious environmental problems, and the development of energy diversification strategies, the industry has developed rapidly. As the heart of electric vehicles, power batteries are the key to the development of new energy automobile industry. Under the support of a series of policy measures and the efforts of all parties, China's power battery industry has achieved remarkable results. What is the future of the power battery?
Power battery scale grows rapidly
It is predicted that domestic production and sales will maintain rapid growth in the next five years, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to exceed 30%. The new energy vehicle market has experienced explosive growth, which directly drives the rapid growth of power batteries.
According to the data from the Prospective Industry Research Institute's "China Power Battery PACK Industry Development Forecast and Investment Analysis Report", the output value of China's power battery in 2015 was 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 262%, and the output value was close to that of digital lithium batteries. In 2016, China's power battery output value reached 64.5 billion yuan, surpassing the scale of traditional digital lithium battery for the first time, becoming the largest proportion of lithium battery consumption structure.
With the introduction of a new round of promotion policies and the future improvement of lithium battery production technology and cost reduction, the demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles will grow rapidly in the next five years. In 2016, the output of China's automotive power batteries is 30.8GWh. It is estimated that China's automotive power lithium battery production will reach 141GWh in 2020.
Forecast of cumulative quantity of new energy vehicles in China in the next 5 years
From the domestic power battery enterprise capacity, only BYD and CATL are close to 35GWh, and the total capacity of the top 6 power battery companies exceeds 75GWH. Assuming that these six power battery companies only have 32% of passenger car capacity supply, the power battery industry Production capacity is also basically in excess. Overcapacity of power battery appears, which will accelerate the differentiation and adjustment of the power battery industry, and only companies with strong competitiveness can stand out.
At present, China's power battery industry has entered a new stage of development, but there are still many problems in industrial structure, manufacturing process, technological innovation, etc. In addition, it faces enormous pressure from the rapid improvement of international vehicle and power battery technology, China's power battery industry. Development and the leading position of new energy vehicles are facing challenges.
Power battery company development advice
From the perspective of power battery companies, the overcapacity situation has become more and more obvious. The ternary transformation of power batteries and the increase of energy density are irreversible, but the speed of conversion to lithium ternary battery in 2018 may slow down. In view of this, consider the following suggestions:
1. Further improve the new energy automobile industry policy, upgrade the production chain management of new energy vehicle manufacturers, strengthen the sales specifications of new energy vehicle manufacturers, and create a level playing field.
2. Adhere to the management of power batteries not to relax, strengthen industry capacity monitoring, promote the coordinated development of leading enterprises in the industrial chain and economies of scale, and promote mergers and acquisitions among enterprises of the same type.
3, the technical dimension to deal with the double integration policy, the focus is to accelerate the innovation of power battery technology, improve the energy density of power batteries, and break through the core technologies of battery charging speed, safety, reliability, and service life.
Despite the market pressures such as subsidies and 30,000-kilometer policies and overcapacity, the high-quality capacity gap is still the logical fulcrum for power battery companies to accelerate investment and expansion. Major brands must adopt their own development model according to their own characteristics, and also need to further enrich the industrial model.