When Will New Energy Vehicles Achieve Parity With Traditional Fuel Vehicles?

When Will New Energy Vehicles Achieve Parity With Traditional Fuel Vehicles?

Date:Oct 08, 2020

 

BNEF uses the latest battery price prediction model to update the cost estimate of the pure electric vehicle. The initial purchase cost of pure electric vehicles is still higher than that of fuel vehicles, but the gap between the two continues to narrow. The retail price of pure electric vehicles is a major factor in determining their market penetration and directly affects the profitability of OEMs.

 

(Source: micro-channel public number "Bloomberg New Energy Finance" ID: BloombergNEF Author: BNEF)

 


The price of pure electric SUV in Europe, the proportion of power battery cost and the price of traditional fuel SUV

 SUV and Traditional Fuel SUV


In the car segment with higher vehicle prices such as the large European car market and the American SUV market, we expect that new energy vehicles and gasoline vehicles will achieve parity as early as 2022. From 2023 to 2024, the proportion of power batteries in the cost of the entire vehicle is expected to fall to 20% or less, and electric motors account for about 8% to 10% of the cost of the entire vehicle. The cost of pure electric powertrain vehicles and fuel vehicles similar.


In the lower-priced automotive market segments such as small cars in China and Japan, power batteries account for a relatively large proportion of the vehicle cost, and the rate of decline is relatively slow. The time span for parity between cars and fuel vehicles is large, and there are regions Differences, the time to achieve parity is expected to be between 2026 and 2030.


The time for pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles to achieve parity depends on the assumptions of cruising range and mass production. Under certain assumptions, this report draws the theoretically achievable cost of making pure electric vehicles by car companies. The cruising range has a direct impact on the cost of the vehicle. We assume that the cruising range of pure electric vehicles in various countries/regions will remain unchanged in the next few years. Consumer choices and the structure of the local auto market may change this premise. In the calculation process, we assume that pure electric vehicles can achieve mass production, that is, a single factory produces more than 100,000 vehicles per year. It may take several years for the production capacity of some auto companies to reach such a scale.


Original title: When will new energy vehicles achieve parity with traditional fuel vehicles?

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